For Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties…
…Periods of rain with potential for significant accumulations for Southwest California Thursday through Tuesday…
…Heavy rain and damaging south winds expected Friday and Friday night…
…Potential for heavy snow at higher mountain elevations Friday into Saturday…
POTENTIAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHT and TIMING:
- Series of storms to move across the area Thursday through next Tuesday;
o Periods of heavy rain likely Friday into Friday night
o Rain and snow showers mainly over the mountains Saturday afternoon through Sunday
- Potential heavy snow at higher mountain elevations Friday through Saturday morning
o 1-2 feet possible above 7500 feet
o 6-12 inches between 6000 and 7500 feet
- Damaging south to southwest winds
o Friday and Friday night (gusts 60-80 mph mountains, 30-50 mph coast/valleys)
o Monday through Monday evening
- High surf with strong rip currents, Thursday through Sunday (highest surf Saturday)
o 10 – 18’ surf Central Coast
o 8 – 13’ surf L.A. and Ventura Coasts
- Flash flooding, mud, and debris flows for Santa Barbara, Ventura, LA counties
o Especially recent burn areas.
- Widespread urban roadway flooding likely during periods of heavy rainfall
- Flooding of small streams and creeks
- Numerous downed trees and powerlines due to strong winds
- Risk of rock and mudslides – especially canyon roadways.
- Winter travel conditions on mountain roads near/above 6,000’.
- Strong winds over the Coastal Waters Friday will create hazardous sea conditions that persist into the weekend, including high-use nearshore waters
- Extended period of High Surf expected Thursday through Sunday with strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and coastal erosion
Estimated Rainfall totals Thursday through Sunday:
- Coast and Valleys: 2 to 6 inches (highest south of Point Conception)
- Foothills and mountains: 5 to 10 inches; highest on south-facing slopes
- Deserts: 0.75 to 1.5 inches
- Peak rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour Friday into Friday evening
- High confidence in timing Thursday through early Saturday
- Moderate confidence in rainfall amounts through early Saturday. Low to moderate confidence late Saturday through Tuesday.
- Low to moderate confidence in timing and rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday
A major change in the weather pattern is expected Thursday as a large upper low approaches the West Coast and a weakening frontal system crosses Southwest California. A series of impulses will follow for Friday through Sunday, with the potential for heavy rain Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Snow levels will range between 6,000 to 7,500 feet Friday into early Saturday, with heavy snowfall possible at higher mountain elevations. Additional rain and snow is expected, mainly over the mountains, late Saturday into Sunday as a moist flow remains over the area. There is the potential for periods of strong southerly winds over the area, Friday and Friday night, and again Monday through Monday evening. Model forecasts show another upper low setting up west of the California/Oregon border on Monday with rain affecting the entire California coast through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.
NWS will continue to provide email updates if the forecast changes or check our website at www.weather.gov/losangeles
Contact NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard at (805) 988-6619 for 24×7 forecast updates (unlisted).